Ngā Pūrongo - He aha te pānga o te whakahekenga o te reiti huamoni 25-ira a te Federal Reserve, i muri i ngā marama e iwa, ki te mākete maitai o te ao?

I te 18 o Hepetema, i panuitia e te Federal Reserve tana whakahekenga reiti huamoni tuatahi mai i te tau 2025. I whakatau te Komiti Mākete Tuwhera ā-Motu (FOMC) ki te whakaheke i ngā reiti huamoni mā te 25 ngā tohu pūtake, me te whakaheke i te awhe whāinga mō te reiti pūtea ā-motu ki waenga i te 4% me te 4.25%. I rite tēnei whakatau ki ngā tumanakohanga a te mākete. Koinei te wā tuatahi kua whakahekehia e te Fed ngā reiti huamoni i roto i ngā marama e iwa mai i te Hakihea o te tau kua hipa. I waenga i te Hepetema me te Hakihea o te tau kua hipa, i whakahekehia e te Fed ngā reiti huamoni mā te 100 ngā tohu pūtake puta noa i ngā hui e toru, ā, i pupuri tonu i ngā reiti kia pumau mō ngā hui e rima karapīpiti.

I roto i tētahi huihuinga pāpāho, i kī te Heamana o te Federal Reserve, a Powell, he whakatau whakahaere mōrearea tēnei whakahekenga reiti, ā, kāore e tika kia tere te whakarerekētanga o ngā reiti huamoni. E whakaatu ana tēnei kāore te Fed e uru ki tētahi huringa whakahekenga reiti pumau, e whakamatao ana i ngā kare ā-roto o te mākete.

E ai ki ngā kaitātari, ko te whakahekenga o te reiti 25-ira a te Fed he whakahekenga "ārai", ko te tikanga ka tukuna he moni nui ake hei whakaoho i ngā mahi ōhanga, hei tautoko i te mākete mahi, me te ārai i te mōrearea o te taunga uaua ki te ōhanga o Amerika.

E matapaetia ana e te mākete ka haere tonu te whakahekenga a te Federal Reserve i ngā reiti huamoni i tēnei tau.

Ki te whakatauritea ki te whakahekenga reiti tonu, he mea nui ake ngā tohu kaupapa here i muri mai i tukuna e te hui a te Federal Reserve i te marama o Hepetema, ā, kei te aro nui atu te mākete ki te tere o ngā whakahekenga reiti a te Fed a meake nei.

E tohu ana ngā kaitātari ka eke te pānga o ngā tariff ki te pikinga o ngā utu o Amerika ki tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuawhā. Hei tāpiri, kei te ngoikore tonu te mākete mahi o Amerika, me te matapae ka piki tonu te reiti kore mahi ki te 4.5%. Mēnā ka heke tonu ngā raraunga utu kore-pāmu o Oketopa i raro i te 100,000, he tino tūponotanga ka heke anō te reiti i te marama o Tīhema. Nō reira, e matapaetia ana ka heke te Fed i ngā reiti huamoni mā te 25 ngā pūtake i te marama o Oketopa me Tīhema, ka eke te tapeke ki te 75 ngā pūtake, e toru ngā wā mō te tau.

I tēnei rā, i kitea e te mākete ā-mua maitai o Haina he nui ake ngā hua i ngā mate, me te pikinga o ngā utu mākete ā-wāhi toharite puta noa i te poari. Kei roto i tēneipā rakau, Ngā hihi-H, maitaingā koiri, ngā rīpene maitai, ngā paipa maitai me te pereti maitai.

I runga i ngā tirohanga o runga ake nei, ka tohutohu a Royal Steel Group ki ngā kiritaki:

1. Maukati tonu i ngā utu ota potoWhakamahia te wā e kore ai te utu whakawhiti o nāianei e whakaata katoa i te whakahekenga utu e tumanakohia ana, ā, hainatia he kirimana utu pumau me ngā kaiwhakarato. Mā te pupuri i ngā utu o nāianei ka karohia te pikinga o ngā utu hoko nā te pikinga o ngā utu whakawhiti i muri mai.

2. Aroturuki i te tere o ngā whakahekenga reiti huamoni e whai ake nei:E kī ana te kauwhata ira a te Fed ka heke anō te utu mā te 50 ira pūtake i mua i te mutunga o te tau 2025. Mēnā ka heke tonu ngā raraunga mahi o Amerika, ka taea e tēnei te whakaoho i ngā whakahekenga utu ohorere, ka nui ake te pēhanga ki te RMB kia piki ake te uara. E tohutohuhia ana ngā kiritaki kia aro turuki i te taputapu CME Fed Watch me te whakarerekē i ngā mahere hoko.